Republic of Ireland general election almost too close to call

Carl Power May 21, 2007

With the polls about to open on the 24^th May this has proven to be one of the closest fought elections in decades. Leading experts and political pollsters have been seen scratching their heads and visibly discombobulated by the prospect of calling the result. With the ruling coalition (Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats) sitting on a combined total of 43% in the latest opinion polls and the alternative coalition (Fine Gael, Labour, and the Greens) on 43%, this election will be won or lost by possibly handfuls of votes.

The recent comeback by Fianna Fail after a disastrous opening to their campaign suggests that voters may still not be convinced by the opposition’s assertions that the economy would be safe in their hands. Fine Gael in particular has been criticized for their economic proposals in their manifesto which Fianna Fail’s Brian Cowen claims are poorly costed and unworkable. The present incumbent’s policy of sticking to economic based arguments and hammering home their record on jobs creation, wage increases, lowering of income taxes and the continued direct foreign investment into Ireland, seems to be resonating with voters.

What is certain is that none of the parties will have enough seats after the results are in to form a single party government. This means, if the current polls are correct, that some of the smaller parties will end up yielding a lot of power. Already there is talk of a Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein alliance but this could be simply mischief making on behalf of Fianna Fail in order to tempt Pat Rabbitte’s Labour party into a coalition. Fianna Fail voters have always looked to Labour as their natural coalition partners and therefore would have no difficulties about forming such an alliance. Pat Rabbitte has already said that he would not wish to go into coalition with Fianna Fail and would only countenance that notion in order to prevent Sinn Fein from taking seats at the next cabinet. The rise of Sinn Fein in southern Irish politics has troubled many of the politicians here regardless of the power-sharing administration in the North and their successful participation in the peace process. Irish politicians still don’t trust Sinn Fein, a party who has only just recently abandoned the bombs and the bullets for the ballot box. But it is quite conceivable if things fall their way that Sinn Fein could win ten seats in the next parliament, if this happens, they could hold the balance of power, a situation most of the other parties would dread. This scenario would leave the door open for Pat Rabbitte to ‘put the interest of the people first’ and go into coalition with Bertie Ahern of Fianna Fail, in order to save the country from Sinn Fein’s radical Marxists policies.

So how will it all pan out?

Well, if I were to stick my neck out - and I am about to, I would say the most likely outcome will be a Fianna Fail/Labour government, and leaving aside political expedience for one moment, I happen to think it would be the best option for Ireland. Labour bring with them a keen eye for social justice and equality, whilst Fianna Fail have shown that there economics policies have transformed Ireland into the now famed Celtic Tiger Economy. Together, Ireland would be the beneficiaries of a balanced partnership that could take us on to the next stage in our development as a nation consistently punching above our weight. By next weekend we shall know the make up of the next government; Irish voters will have decided who they want as their next Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and the guessing games will have come to an end. Looking into the future I can only see Bertie Ahern as the next Taoiseach of the 30^th Dail (Parliament) but with a race this close it’s anyone’s guess. My next ground report will either be written over the crumbs of humble pie or bathed in the sweet perfume of astute political awareness, we shall have to wait and see which one it is.

Submitted by Carl Power

Tags: Election , Ireland , Fianna