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Taleban Onslaught Undermines Afghan Peace Effort

Thu, 09 Jun 2011 02:00:42 -0500

As insurgents pick off officials in targeted attacks, negotiators face mounting pressure to explain lack of visible progress towards peace deal.

A recent spate of insurgent attacks has intensified the criticism of official attempts to engage the Taleban in peace talks.

The High Peace Council set up by President Hamed Karzai last autumn is beset on all sides. Some accuse it of being too ready to make concessions to terrorists, while others say the unrelenting wave of Taleban attacks indicates it must be talking to the wrong terrorists.

“We are living in a situation with no clear enemy,” member of parliament Mohammad Saleh Saljuki said on June 1, in a speech quoted by the Tolo News agency. “Our president is lost, and the peace council is failing to find those it should hold peace talks with.”

Saljuki was speaking after a series of Taleban actions across Afghanistan, the most recent being twin attacks carried out on May 30 in the western city of Herat – one of them on a NATO facility – leaving at least four dead and over 50 injured.

Two days before that, a suicide bombing in Takhar province killed General Daud Daud, commander of police in northern Afghanistan, and provincial police chief Shah Jahan Nuri, and injured provincial governor Abdul Jabbar Taqwa Taqwa as well as Major-General Marcus Kneip, the German commander of NATO forces in the north.

In April, Khan Mohammad Mujahid, police chief in the southern Kandahar province was killed in a suicide attack on his headquarters, and Abdul Rahman Sayedkhili, police chief in Kunduz in the north died in the same manner in March.

This week, the remains of the provincial assembly chief in the central Bamian province, Jawad Zehak, were found. The Afghan intelligence agency blamed insurgents for his abduction and murder, and said this was part of a campaign to destabilise parts of Afghanistan due to be handed from NATO to Afghan military control.

President Karzai set up the High Peace Council last autumn following a national congress or “jirga” in June which approved the principle of seeking a deal with the insurgent groups, which include Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-i Islami faction and the “Haqqani network” as well as the Taleban.

From the outset, the council has faced simultaneous accusations that it is failing to make headway, and also that it is too willing to compromise, for example by securing the release of captive insurgents for little return.

The upper house of parliament, the Meshrano Jerga, recently deemed the government’s strategy of engagement a failure, arguing that the security situation had deteriorated rather than improved since the peace council came into being.

Political analyst Jawid Kohistani says negotiations to date have failed to reel in any of senior Taleban figures, and any engagement has been with inconsequential groups.

“Massive amounts of money have been spent on this process, yet no significant gains have been made,” he added.

Many of the voices speaking out against engagement with the Taleban belong to northern politicians, often associated with the armed factions that fought the Taleban as the group won control of Afghanistan in the 1990s.

Among them is Hajji Mohammad Mohaqeq, leader of the Hizb-e Wahdat party, who has spoken out against the peace council even though he is a member of it.

“The High Peace Council issues orders for the release of Taleban prisoners. The security forces arrest terrorists and the High Peace Council and [its predecessor] the peace commission set them free,” he told parliament in early May. “Negotiations with the opposition are unilateral, and conducted from a position of weakness. This has further emboldened the opposition to pursue bloodshed.” Other members of the council rejected his accusations.

“What Mohaqeq said is not true,” said Fazel Karim Aimaq, another council member. “The High Peace Council has released nobody so far.”

Aimaq defended the council’s record, saying much of the progress it had made could not be made public as the issues were so sensitive.

Government claims that more than 1,000 Taleban have laid down their arms since the creation of the High Peace Council have been denied by the insurgents themselves. Some officials and commentators agree that that many of those surrendering were never insurgents and were just trying to take advantage of the package, financial and otherwise, offered to militants who come over to the government side. (See “Taleban Surrenders” Not All They Seem for more on these claims.)

A different accusation often made against the council concerns its 68 members, all appointed by President Karzai, some of whom formerly led militia factions that engaged in a bloody civil war in the early 1990s, while other are ex-members of the Taleban and Hezb-i Islami. Critics say former warlords are hardly the best people to task with a peace effort.

“Some members of the peace council are accused of crimes themselves,” Kohistani said. “Implementing the peace process will be impossible as long as such individuals are present on the peace council.”

For others, the council includes too many conservatives who would be quite comfortable with Taleban demands for a more rigorous Islamic system as part of a peace settlement. (These concerns are covered in Afghan Women Fear Sell-Out in Taleban Talks.)

Finally, there is a view that peace talks are ultimately pointless since the government cannot make the Taleban an offer they are likely to accept. Kabul’s preconditions for reconciliation require the insurgents to lay down their weapons unconditionally, accept the current Afghan constitution and renounce ties with al-Qaeda.

The Taleban show no sign of moving on these issues, and insist that all NATO troops must leave Afghanistan before talks with Kabul can go ahead.

Zabihullah Mojahed, a spokesman for the Taleban, dismissed the peace council’s claims that it is in negotiations.

“Talks will not take place until foreign forces withdraw from Afghanistan, because the Taleban will not talk to the government in the presence of foreigners,” he said.

Despite the many criticisms of the peace council and its activities, some Afghans argue that a purely military solution to the conflict is impossible, so some kind of negotiated deal is necessary. Their view appears to be shared by western officials, who have shown signs of seeking contacts with various insurgents groups.

Although Zahir Saadat is a member of parliament from Panjshir province, an area renowned for its hostilily to the Taleban, he says the High Peace Council needs to continue its efforts.

“The council may have some shortcomings, but that doesn’t mean that it hasn’t worked at all, that it’s achieved nothing or that it should be abolished. A number of opposition members have joined the government as a result of the council’s work, and we need to support that process,” he said.

Kabul resident Mortaza agreed that the council was essential as a point of contact for insurgents who were seeking ways to negotiate an end to conflict. “Who can they contact if this council or something like it doesn’t exist?" he asked.Presidential spokesman Wahid Omar said the work to build a peace deal would continue and there was no chance of the council being dissolved.

“No one has the authority to abolish the council because it was established on the basis of recommendations made by the Consultative Peace Jirga,” he said.

Report: Mina Habib - Afghanistan - IWPR

Top War Crimes Suspect Mladic Captured, Faces Extradition

Fri, 27 May 2011 04:18:26 -0500

Top War Crimes Suspect Mladic Captured, Faces Extradition
Serbian president says "difficult" phase in country's history now over.

The arrest of General Ratko Mladic, commander of the Bosnian Serb army during the 1990s conflict, means the last top-level official accused of genocide and war crimes in the former Yugoslavia will finally be brought before the Hague tribunal.

Serbian president Boris Tadic confirmed that the former general had been arrested inside the country. The arrest was carried out by the war crimes department of the national Security and Intelligence Agency, assisted by Serbian police, in the village of Lazarevo in Vojvodina, northern Serbia, where Mladic was reportedly living with a cousin. The Serbian news site B92 reported that Mladic gave a false name but was cooperative when he was detained.

Mladic appeared in court later on May 26 at the start of extradition proceedings which could see him sent to The Hague within a week.

In an immediate reaction, the office of the prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, ICTY, issued a statement welcoming Mladic’s arrest and calling this “an important day for international justice”.

“Ratko Mladic’s arrest clearly signals that the commitment to international criminal justice is entrenched. Today’s events show that people responsible for grave violations of international humanitarian law can no longer count on impunity,” the statement said.

The Hague tribunal issued a separate statement describing the arrest as a “milestone” in the ICTY’s history which “brings the institution closer to the successful completion of its mandate”. It noted that only one of the 161 individuals indicted was still at large – Goran Hadzic, who is wanted to face charges over the killing of hundreds of Croat civilians in his time as head of a self-declared Serb entity in Croatia.

The statement expressed hope that Hadzic would be arrested “in the very near future”.

Mladic was generally believed to be hiding in Serbia over many years, and questions over why he managed to remain there undetected for so long have hampered the country’s efforts to move towards European integration. In a pointed reference to the implications for Serbia, Tadic said, “We have concluded a difficult phase in our history, and removed a stain from members of the Serbian nation wherever they live.” His remarks were quoted in the Belgrade paper Politika.

Moderate Serbian politicians welcomed the news, while the Serbian Radical Party condemned it and promised to stage a pro-Mladic rally in the near future.

Clearly mindful of the risk of protests, the head of Serbia’s police force, Milorad Veljovic, said heightened security precautions would be put in place in Belgrade and other cities, including around foreign diplomatic missions.

In Belgrade, an IWPR reporter said the city was quiet. People interviewed on the streets were divided about the arrest. Some echoed Tadic’s view that this would allow Serbia to move on, away from its recent history and towards accession to the European Union. Others, however, were saddened, saying Mladic was a hero who had fought for the Serb people.

In Republika Srpska, the Serb entity of Bosnia-Hercegovina, President Milorad Dodik issued a statement expressing confidence that peace and stability there would not be upset by the arrest.

"I hope Mladic will have a fair trial in The Hague, something which is guaranteed by human rights conventions,” he said. “The institutions of Republika Srpska have never supported or defended anyone who has committed war crimes, whatever their ethnic or religious background."

Bakir Izetbegovic, the Bosniak member of Bosnia-Hercegovina’s tripartite presidency, said, "This is a great day for all victims of war crimes in Bosnia, and for all states in the region. Justice is sometimes slow – in this case too slow – but it can be achieved."

Croatian president Ivo Josipovic said Serbia had taken a "major, important step towards EU accession" with the arrest, which would "greatly contribute to good relations in the region".

IWPR will be following this story with news analysis, comment and reactions from the region and from the Hague tribunal.

By Merdijana Sadović, John MacLeod - International Justice - ICTY
TRI Issue 694, 26 May 11

Female Suicide “Epidemic” in Tajikistan

Thu, 07 May 2009 13:38:37 -0500

Female Suicide “Epidemic”in Tajikistan

Unchecked domestic violence seen as root cause.

By Mukammal Odinaeva in Dushanbe (07-May-09)

“One winter evening I went out into the yard, poured aviation fuel over my legs and set fire to myself,” said Mosharif, a young Tajik woman from Vakhsh in eastern Tajikistan.

She was taken to hospital and survived, but she regrets that she did.

“Why did they save me? I don’t want to live like this,” she said.

Suicide rates are high among Tajik women because of unchecked domestic abuse and because victims are unaware of their rights.

From January to September 2008, the latest period for which statistics are available, there were 240 recorded cases of female suicide in Tajikistan. Experts think the true figures are a lot higher as some deaths are misreported.

“Suicide among women has become an epidemic, like HIV/AIDS or malaria,” said Mahmadullo Davlatov, a member of the Association of Psychologists of Tajikistan.

Human rights activists say around eight out of ten violent crimes occur within the family home. It is common for men to assault their wives, who enjoy little protection from relatives as they generally move to the husband’s family home after marriage. (For a report on the status of women, see Gender Equality a Dead Letter in Tajikistan, RCA No. 539, 31-Mar-08.)

“Although there are no official figures on [the number of] victims of domestic violence, it’s a very acute problem in Tajikistan and represents a great threat not just to women, but to the wellbeing of the whole of society,” said Zebo Sharifova, executive director of the League of Women Lawyers.”

Womens’ rights groups list many reasons why women take such extreme measures – domestic violence, sexual assault, a husband’s adultery, or the arrival of a second wife – polygamy is technically illegal but is common in Tajikistan. Other factors include lack of money, and the absence of a husband, leaving wives vulnerable to abuse from his relatives.

Alternatives such as leaving are frequently not an option. A stigma attaches to women who seek a divorce, and their own families may be reluctant to take them back.

Fundamentally, says Orzu Ghanieva, who heads Gulrukhsor, a women’s centre in the northern city of Khujand, suicide is a consequence of women being treated as “chattels and servants”.

After she got married at just 16, Mosharif says her husband and mother-in-law beat her regularly, even when she was pregnant.

“I thought everything would change when my daughter was born, but it got even worse,” she recalled. “My husband hit both me and the baby. He said I should get out of the house because I hadn’t been able to bear him a son and he didn’t need a daughter. At the age of 17 I no longer wanted to live. I kept thinking about how to be free of this nightmare. I dreamed of jumping in the river or setting myself on fire.”

As in Mosharif’s case, one of the most common methods of suicide among women in Tajikistan – as in neighbouring Uzbekistan and Afghanistan – is self-immolation.

Some, like the academic Zafar Saidov, say self-immolation has deep roots that predate the advent of Islam and may be connected with older Zoroastrian beliefs.

“The preference for this specific method of suicide is principally connected with the cult of fire,” he said. “Fire is believed to cleanse the soul and end moral suffering.”

Not all suicide cases involve young women. Sayram was married for 14 years and had four children before she made a number of suicide attempts – poisoning herself, throwing herself in a river, trying to hang herself, and cutting veins.

She was driven to desperation by her husband, who beat her badly and never gave her money for basics like food and children’s clothing.

“In the end I lost sight of the sense of living,” she recalled.

Eventually she doused herself in kerosene and set fire to herself. When she woke up in hospital she had 50 per cent burns.

In other cases, women are driven to make a suicide attempt by members of their own families.

“I am the only girl in the family,” said one young woman. From the age of 12 I had a job as a cleaner and I was saving up so I could study to be a lawyer. But my brother forbade me from studying. He used to kick me and tell me not to go out of the house so I could remain as the servant to all of them.

She too set herself on fire. “I didn’t want to die; I just wanted him to stop assaulting me.”

From a legal point of view, the problem, say many experts, is that Tajikistan lacks specific legislation concerning domestic violence.

Madina Usmanova, a lawyer with the INIS Legal Aid Centre for Women in Dushanbe, says cases can be brought under laws on common assault.

But generally, she says, “Women are afraid to go to the law enforcement agencies or the judiciary because they don’t believe their appeals [for help] will be heard.”

There is also the specific offence of “driving to suicide”, under which 30 prosecutions took place in January-October last year.

Young wives are often mistreated by their in-laws, who regard them as little more than a source of free physical labour for the household.

Lawyer Faizinisso Vohidova says the courts are increasingly prepared to handle domestic cases of this kind, and a number of women have been convicted of abusing their daughters-in-law.

In terms of legislation, the situation is not without hope, as a bill on domestic violence is currently being drafted.

Representatives of the public order department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, meanwhile, told IWPR that an internal order has been issued setting out penalties for police who fail to respond to complaints from allegations of domestic violence made by members of the public.

However, it is common for women not to take cases forward.

As academic Abdulvohid Shamolov explains, in Tajikistan one does not discuss one’s domestic troubles with friends and relatives, let alone with outsiders.

“People frequently condemn women whose husbands assault and humiliate them,” he said. “There’s a perception they allow themselves to be treated like that. And crimes committed within the family remain invisible, and therefore go unpunished.”

Dr Shoira Yusupova, a surgeon at Tajikistan’s national burns centre, says it is common for husbands to get their wives to sign a statement that their burns were accidental.

Both Sayram and Mosharif recalled how their husbands visited them in hospital for this purpose.

“He asked me to tell the prosecutor the burns resulted from carelessness,” said Mosharif. “I refused to do so for a long time, but he and his mother were always pressuring me. In the end I told the police it was an accident. Then my husband ran off to Russia.”

IWPR spoke to one woman, Shamsia, whose husband was eventually convicted even though she did not report him herself.

Shamsia ended up in hospital after swallowing over 100 sharp items – broken razors, needles, nails and fragments of glass.

The marriage was an arranged one, and although she repeatedly returned to her parents’ home after her husband attacked her, they always sent her back.

Doctors incorrectly diagnosed a stomach ulcer, and Shamsia’s husband refused to pay for further investigation. He sent her back to her parents, where her father had her hospitalised again.

At that point she confided in a female relative, who informed the hospital authorities.

Shamsia’s life was saved by an operation, and her husband was arrested, tried and convicted of forcing her to swallow the sharp objects.

Experts say the government should be doing more to confront the problem of female suicide. It is the role of the state, said Ghanieva, to guarantee equal rights.

Among the measures human rights activists are pressing for are the domestic violence legislation currently in the drafting stage, a new commission which would work to prevent female suicide, and a network of social services to help women in difficulties.

Shamolov says that for a start, the authorities should set up a research centre to collate and study data on violence within the family so that the basic information is available.

Pessimists argue that since society is male-dominated, there is little sense of the urgency of change.

A senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IWPR there was an awareness of the link between suicide and domestic violence. The reason why little was being done about it was not indifference, but lack of available funds, he said.

“The government has almost no funds for addressing domestic violence,” he said. “And there are no statistics on it. We are under an obligation to gather data, but we don’t get any resources allocated for this. So no one talks about it.”

Dr Yusupova says the consequences of suicide attempts are far-reaching for the women involved and for those around them.

Treatment and recovery from appalling burn injuries are slow and painful for the victim.

“To see it is to experience physical and psychological pain,” she said Dr Yusupova. “You wouldn’t wish it on your worst enemy.”

Mukammal Odinaeva is a journalist in Tajikistan.

This article was produced under IWPR’s Building Central Asian Human Rights Protection & Education Through the Media programme, funded by the European Commission. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of IWPR and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

This article was originally published on www.iwpr.net

In Sudan, Activists Mount Legal Challenge to NGO Closures

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:32:21 -0500

Civil society groups attempt to resist government crackdown in wake of ICC’s indictment of Bashir.

By Amy Stillman in London (AR No. 209, 9-Apr-09)

It was late in the afternoon when the letter arrived at the Sudan Social Development Organization, SUDO, headquarters in Khartoum.

Signed by the Sudanese government’s Humanitarian Assistance Commission, HAC, it sounded the death knell for the largest Sudanese humanitarian organisation operating in Darfur.

Claiming that SUDO had been working outside its humanitarian mandate, the letter called for its immediate closure. It wasn’t long before security forces arrived to ensure that all of SUDO’s ten offices, computers, documents and furniture were handed over to the government. Its bank accounts were instantly frozen.

“We have no access to our funds, so we can’t even pay our employees,” said SUDO’s head, Mudawi Ibrahim Adam.

“The government shut us down because we are an independent organisation. They want their own organisations, organisations that are following the line of the government.”

SUDO is among many NGOs that have fallen victim to a recent government crackdown, which led to the expulsion of 13 foreign aid agencies and the closure of two other local human rights organisations.

An NGO representative close to SUDO said “the human rights scene in Sudan has been wiped off the map” since the International Criminal Court, ICC, indicted Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir for war crimes on March 4. Bashir said the NGOs were targeted because they “threatened the security of Sudan”, accusing them of collaboration with the ICC.

Only two hours after the warrant was issued, security forces shut down the Khartoum-based Amel Centre for the Rehabilitation of Victims of Torture. The centre works to inform people of their rights and provide psychological and medical assistance to victims of human rights violations. According to the Amel Centre director Najib Najm El Din, the organisation had been seeing up to 30 new torture victims a month.

“We don’t know what is going on with our clients, because we can’t reach them,” said Najib. “For those that went to court, now nobody is following their cases. We are trying to do something through other organisations, but we don’t have enough money to offer care and pay for victim’s treatment.”

The Khartoum Centre for Human Rights and Environmental Development, KCHRED, was targeted on the same day, with security forces raiding the offices and confiscating a safe, computers and classified documents. KCHRED provides legal aid to victims of torture and human rights training to lawyers.

The organisation’s staff has since fled Sudan, including legal aid coordinator, Ali M Agab who is in the United Kingdom. He told IWPR that files containing the names and details of thousands of victims are now in the hands of HAC, which works closely with the security forces. “Those people’s lives are in danger now,” he said.

SUDO, which had 300 members of staff, has provided clean drinking water, health services and sanitation to 700,000 internally displaced persons.

A major project was the construction of a much-needed health clinic at the Zam Zam refugee camp in north Darfur. Several international aid agencies IWPR spoke to said they don’t know how the clinic will survive.

Selena Brewer from Human Rights Watch said the closure of SUDO and the other NGOs is having a massive impact. “It’s basically closing down that sector of Sudanese civil society. For anybody that works on human rights in Darfur or anywhere else in the country, the situation is really terrifying,” she said.

But the NGOs are determined to challenge the government over the closures. On March 10, the activists appealed the HAC decision. Their case will be heard on April 13 at the Administrative Court of Justice in Khartoum. And, they say, if that is unsuccessful, they will take their case to a higher court.

“We are not going to give up on our supporters. We have to go to the courts,” said Najib.

While outwardly bullish, some are concerned about their prospects, as there are doubts about whether Adam will be able to turn up for the appeal. He is due to appear in court on corruption charges the day before, accused of embezzling 40,000 US dollars of SUDO funds in 2004.

“They have found this out now? I don’t think they have any case, and I’m not at all scared about what they are saying,” he told IWPR.

The closure of the Sudanese NGOs follows years of state pressure on civil society activists. “The pattern of repression has been getting worse and worse, and it’s becoming impossible for people to speak out,” said Brewer.

Both SUDO and Adam have previously been subject to government intimidation. In March 2003, officials closed two of the organisation’s offices and froze its bank accounts. Adam was arrested the same year for alleged anti-state crimes. After no evidence could be produced, he was released. He was arrested again without charge in 2005, and released on bail.

Though the outcome of their appeal is uncertain, Brewer is cautiously hopeful that the NGOs will be allowed to resume their work. “I don’t think the government wants to take on providing food and water for a million people, and they certainly don’t have the capacity to do it,” she said. “So I’m hoping that the appeals process will give them a way to back down without losing face.”

Amy Stillman is an IWPR contributor in London.

Syrian Rappers Find Their Voice

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 08:16:31 -0500

By an IWPR-trained reporter (01-Apr-09)

With a swift move, he brings the microphone close to his mouth.

“Brothers in Gaza, my microphone is your cannon. You kneel down only to God, and no one can force you to surrender,” blares out Hani al-Sawah, as if on stage in front of a huge audience.

But Sawah, 20, is performing with friends in his bedroom and makeshift recording studio in the city of Homs.

Sawah’s head is shaved – his only obvious fashion statement, though he’s no ordinary young man. He sees himself as a poet, writing and performing rap songs with two other friends.

Set up three years ago, his band, Street Art, is now beginning to win over other Syrian youngsters.

Sawah is one of a growing number of rappers and hip-hop performers in Syria who sing about politics, social change and the problems faced by Syrian youth. Most of these homegrown talents, like Rap Refugees, Wrong Way, and Sons of Rage, are gaining popularity among teenagers and university students.

They perform on the street, in parks and college campuses all over Syria, mainly in cities like Damascus, Homs, Aleppo and Lattakia.

“At first, we started imitating foreign rap singers,” said Sawah, recalling that he used to dress and perform like famous artists, such as Latin-American performer Immortal Technique whose lyrics are highly political and often call for revolution.

But he gradually created his own style inspired by life in Syria. He now sings in Arabic with western rap beats.

“We started singing about domestic issues that fit the reality we live in,” said Sawah, who every Thursday meets with his friends on the corner of a street in Homs to exchange ideas and improvise new lyrics.

“Through Arabic rap, we found a great style to express ourselves. Simply, it is a matter of letting off steam.”

Most rap groups haven’t the means to record tracks and produce CDs. They rely on Facebook and other websites to publicise their songs.

Very few get to perform on stage because of the total lack of support for their music, which is considered marginal by record companies, said Imad al-Helou, who works as a sound technician and helps a number of rap bands.

Helou, who also owns a CD shop in Homs, said that local rap songs are downloaded from Syrian websites or passed from one person to another via flash discs. One song was downloaded 50,000 times only hours after it was put online, he said.

The Song of an Exile, performed by Khalid Gailani, obviously hit a nerve in a country where many youngsters dream of leaving – even though many of those who do so and then come back are often disillusioned and disappointed.

“It is a lie to say that abroad everything is great, everything is sweet and good. Take it from me, it is all fantasy. Here, life is decent. Abroad, you are humiliated, so it’s not worth it,” said Khalid, 21, who is one of Syria’s best known rappers.

Khalid wrote the song based on the experience of one of his friends who went abroad but had no luck.

Lyrics that relate to the day-to-day issues of young Syrians seem to be key to the success of local rappers.

Some manage to record their songs in big studios in Damascus by splitting the fee of roughly 100,000 Syrian pounds (2,000 US dollars) between them.

But most produce their songs at home, using simple sound mixers.

“This is the story of my life from birth to death. I hear the sounds of my ahs (used in Arabic to express pain) but still resist,” sings Firas Maasarani, a rapper with the band Underground Pound.

Massarani believes that his songs have a “purpose and a meaning”, that each song is a piece of art, like a painting, trying to convey a message and make people think.

In the first place, they want to express themselves.

But of course, there is also the hope that they will some day be able to make a living out of it, move from the bedroom to a professional studio – a dream that still seems very far away.

“Our music is often looked down upon,” noted Massarani.

So far, though, the authorities have not tried to ban any of the music. This is perhaps because most rappers – either consciously or subconsciously – know the red lines.

Their lyrics mostly deal with social issues or with political topics that are considered acceptable to discuss.

In the aftermath of the Israeli incursion in Gaza in December last year, for example, many rappers devoted their songs to the plight of the Palestinian people.

In the song I Call on You, Khalid criticised Arab regimes that did not come to the aid of Palestinians in Gaza.

“A nation on whose forehead shame we write. There are men under fire who defend themselves by stones,” he sings.

Lyrics like this, he feels, cannot be sung in baggy American pants like most US rappers wear. He prefers to perform in the Kefiyeh, the black and white headscarf that has become the symbol of the Palestinian cause.

In another of his successful songs, The Coffee Has Boiled, he criticises the Syrian youth’s growing obsession with western looks and fashion.

“I have a headache,” run the lyrics. “I feel my heart is hurting when I see my country’s young men and women good only at imitation.”

ICC Urges Congo to Hand Over Ntaganda

Tue, 03 Feb 2009 01:44:57 -0600

By Jacques Kahorha in Goma and Lisa Clifford in The Hague (AR No. 199, 29-Jan-09)


	ICC indictee Bosco Ntaganda shakes hands with Congo's interior minister Celestin Mbuyu. © Jacques Kahorha/Goma

“We are very, very, very happy,” said Yves Jean Bosco Batechi from the North Kivu village of Matanda as he celebrated the news that the rebels waging war on the Congolese army have apparently made peace with the government.

Less happy about the recent developments in eastern Congo are prosecutors at the International Criminal Court, ICC, in The Hague. It was ICC indictee and fugitive Bosco Ntaganda who announced the peace deal during a press conference last week, at which he said he would join forces with the government to fight a rival Rwandan milita.

Accused by the ICC of recruiting child soldiers and wanted in The Hague, Ntaganda was earlier this month pictured shaking hands with a senior government minister who thanked him for his contribution to the peace process.

The government called in the ICC in 2004 and is responsible for arresting Ntaganda, but analysts say that seems unlikely to happen. The new leader of the rebel National Congress for the Defense of the People, CNDP, militia group has been highly visible in recent days, spending most of his time at a top Goma hotel where he meets with journalists and diplomats.

“At the moment there are no indications the Congolese government are prepared at all to arrest Ntaganda,” said Anneke van Woudenberg from Human Rights Watch.

With no police force of its own, the ICC has struggled to execute many of its warrants, with indictees from Uganda and Sudan also proving elusive.

Prosecutors accuse Ntaganda of enlisting and conscripting children under the age of 15 to fight in the Ituri conflict in northeastern Congo. He is alleged to have worked closely with Union of Congolese Patriots, UPC, leader Thomas Lubanga who is currently on trial in The Hague on the same charges.

Until recently, Ntaganda was CNDP chief of staff under Laurent Nkunda but apparently ousted his former boss in a coup. Nkunda was subsequently arrested in Rwanda where he remains. Congo is demanding he be extradited.

As new CNDP leader, Ntaganda quickly announced he was joining forces with the Congolese and Rwandan armies to drive out the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, FDLR, a Hutu militia group of Rwandan origin which crossed into Congo after the genocide.

“Ntaganda has emerged as winner of the dispute between himself and Nkunda and is now in effect in partnership with the Congolese government and the Rwandan government in military operations against the FDLR,” said van Woudenberg.

Conflict has been raging in North Kivu for years, claiming thousands of lives and displacing hundreds of thousands. Human Rights Watch and others accuse the CNDP of committing atrocities in North Kivu including recent killings in the village of Kiwanja. As chief of staff it was Ntaganda who allegedly planned the rebel group’s military campaign.

Van Woudenberg thinks the Congolese government is putting its desire for peace ahead of its duty to the ICC. As a signatory of the Rome Statute, Congo is obliged to hand over those wanted by the court.

“They are abdicating their legal responsibility to arrest Bosco Ntaganda,” she said. “He is not a viable partner for peace. He is not a viable partner for any military operation. He has committed serious human rights abuses and needs to be arrested and handed over to the ICC.”

That is a view, not surprisingly, shared by the court.

“Bosco Ntaganda should be arrested at the earliest possible occasion and transferred to The Hague. The [office of the prosecutor] will continue efforts to galvanise his arrest and is in contact with all the actors in the region,” said the ICC’s Beatrice Le Fraper in a written statement for IWPR.

She declined to say whether the ICC had been in recent contact with the Congolese government about Ntaganda or if the court had spoken to the United Nations Mission in the Congo, MONUC, about making the arrest.

The Congolese government has also been silent on the issue of Ntaganda’s arrest. Interior minister Celestin Mbuyu declined to comment at his recent press conference with Ntaganda. Instead he praised the rebel leader.

“I have to thank you and your colonels for having taken a courageous decision as Congolese. You are conscious that your brothers and sisters are suffering in the bush and forest that you decided to alleviate their suffering,” he said.

“I promise you that the government is going to do the best so that you can work hand in hand with us to develop our country.”

Ntaganda has promised to integrate his CNDP soldiers into the Congolese army and join in with the Congolese-Rwandan military action against the FDLR.

Barriers separating the front lines have been dismantled and residents allowed to move freely again.

The day after the CNDP declared peace, rival militia the Congolese Patriotic Resistance, PARECO, said it would also stop fighting. PARECO had accused the CNDP of collaborating with Rwanda while the CNDP in turn said PARECO supported the FDLR.

The deal was sealed at a meeting between Ntaganda, his Congolese army counterpart General Vainqueur Mayala and Pie Mugabo, a senior PARECO representative.

“As the CNDP has decided to join the government, there is no more reason for us to continue [fighting]. We have also decided to submit our forces at the disposal of the government for their integration in the national army,” said Sendugu Museveni, PARECO’s president.

North Kivu residents reacted with joy to the news that the fighting could be over.

“War is not a good thing. Three of my relatives were killed in these conflicts and houses were destroyed. Most of our relatives are starving in IDP camps. I am very happy because my parents and my relatives will come back home and start living with us and our children as was the case in the past,” Batechi told IWPR.

Another said they were glad the CNDP would no longer be exacting taxes from travellers passing their front lines. “I have no words to express my joy. People from Sake to Masisi had to get fuel out of their motorbikes or cars and give it to rebels. We were also asked to pay money at each roadblock,” said Baeni from the town of Sake.

However, he worries that this peace process – like so many before – won’t last. “In this country people sign agreements in the morning and at noon, the signature is forgotten. Let’s wait two or three weeks and see what happens,” he said.

Jacques Kahorha is an IWPR contributor in Goma. Lisa Clifford is the international justice/ICC project manager.

This article was originally published by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

Darfur's Janjaweed Loyalty to Bashir Under Strain

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 09:54:23 -0600

By Abdhalla Tajeldin Adam in Belgium (AR No. 198, 27-Jan-09)

The pending indictment of Omar al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court, ICC, appears to have eroded critical support for the embattled Sudanese president among his notorious janjaweed militia allies.

Often translated as “devils on horseback”, the janjaweed are ethnic-Arab militias who have fought alongside the Sudan Armed Forces, SAF, in Darfur against ethnic African rebels.

Since ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo asked the ICC in July to issue war crimes indictments against al-Bashir, some janjaweed commanders say they no longer support the government, fearing that they too, might be indicted.

“When the ICC brought its charges against Ali Kushayb, all the commanders on the ground were astonished and terrified because they didn’t know that someone was tracking them,” said Said Hassab Elrasoul. “But they were completely wrong. The court knows a lot of detail as you see now.”

Elrasoul identified himself as a former janjaweed commander under Mohamed Hamdan, based in the north Darfur town of Kabkabeya.

Hamdan is a well known janjaweed leader who in October 2007 threatened to abandon the government, along with his 20,000 armed men, and join Darfur rebels. Hamdan remained loyal, however, after reportedly hatching an unspecified deal with Khartoum officials.

In April 2007, judges at the ICC issued arrest warrants for two Sudanese, humanitarian affairs ministers Ahmad Harun and janjaweed militia leader Ali Kushayb, for 51 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes related to Darfur. Neither has been arrested.

“We are weighing alternatives and examining all possibilities,” Elrasoul said. “This thing is real. They are going to charge the president. You have to believe it now and be ready for it.

“For me, the accusation [against] Kushayb was an early warning. I took it seriously at the right time, and gave up being [an] agent of Khartoum. In fact, in the eyes of Khartoum, we, as Darfur Arabs, are not different from our African brothers.”

Dissatisfaction with the Sudan government arose because promises have not been kept, Elrasoul said.

“The government promised us land and glory, but we end up as fugitives today,” Elrasoul said. “I learned the lessons now. I got it. We have been used as dirty tools in a political game.”

Another janjaweed commander, known as A Zakey, who is from the South Darfur area of Buram, also said he no longer supports the Sudan government.

“We were in harmony with the government until news about a possible indictment of al-Bashir broke,” Zakey told IWPR.

When word spread that some janjaweed were abandoning the regime, officials are said to have feared that they might cooperate with ICC prosecutors.

“Khartoum thought that we could easily be tempted by its enemies after hearing rumours that some of us were ready to testify before the [ICC] if the government didn’t offer us more power and wealth,” Zakey said.

“Officials in Khartoum took the rumours as facts, and sent a heavily armed rival group, which engaged us in a battle. We lost 19, and more than 26 were injured. That is why we are fighting the government now.

“This is a frightened and cowardly government who lost its courage and is fearful of being tried abroad,” Zakey said. “I am no longer on their side.”

It’s unclear just how many janjaweed are breaking ranks. But those who remain loyal to the regime seem rattled by the defections.

One loyalist janjaweed commander, who wished to remain anonymous, but said he was a relative of janjaweed leader Musa Hilal, from the Saraf Omra area of northwest Darfur, said, “Of course, no one can deny or ignore the new reality created by this threat [of] the ICC. Yes, there is an impending danger, but we are determined to carry on fighting. We are going to stand firm with [al-Bashir] until the very end.

“I know many who became scared after the threat of the court ICC, and left us for their own good. But this is not the time to back down. I am not sure whether we are going to win the war or not, but there is no option left rather than continue fighting.”

Since the janjaweed militias have played a vital role in Khartoum’s counter-insurgency against Darfur rebels, Sudan is desperate to keep them close.

Earlier this month, however, Ali Hussein Daousa, an associate of former Darfur rebel leader Minni Minnawi who joined the government, told a press conference in Khartoum that only trusted janjaweed militias were being rearmed.

Lacking full support from the janjaweed, some suggest, casts doubt on the government’s claim that the situation in Darfur will deteriorate if ICC indicts al-Bashir.

In addition, the Sudan government faces potentials threats from the South Kordofan region which borders Darfur, and from growing tensions with the semi-autonomous South Sudan over the disputed oil-rich Abyei region.

Abdhalla Tajeldin Adam is an IWPR-trained journalist.

ZImbabwe's Power-Sharing Agreement Brings Hope

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 09:48:19 -0600

By Chipo Sithole in Harare (ZCR No. 178, 29-Jan-09)

A ray of hope has been flickering in Zimbabwe amid the filth, disease and wasted lives since President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, agreed on January 26 to share power, potentially ushering in the political stability critical for economic recovery.

After an all-night emergency summit of Southern African leaders at South Africa’s Presidential Guest House in Pretoria, the MDC indicated a willingness to enter a unity government with Mugabe.

The decision – which follows four months of deadlock since a power-sharing deal was signed on September 15 between Mugabe and opposition rivals Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, leaders of the two factions of the MDC – has still, however, to be endorsed by the MDC’s supreme decision-making body, the 135-member National Council, which will meet on January 30.

If, indeed, the truce holds, long-suffering Zimbabweans may at last get a new government. The country has effectively been without leadership since the disputed elections of March 29 last year.

The January 26 breakthrough, besides being a victory for diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and a testament to the give-and-take nature of politics, offers hope of a resurgence of the moribund economy, which, experts have warned, will show negative growth for the tenth successive year if nothing is done to save it.

"If the MDC national council endorses the decision to join government it will no doubt give confidence to investors," said an investment analyst in Harare, while Karikoga Kaseke, chief executive of the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, saw it as "a good start for Zimbabwe to get back on her feet”.

Although one of the terms of the deal is the establishment of a 31-member cabinet, which will put considerable strain on the country’s finances, the business community received the news of the agreement with a sigh of relief.

"It’s a big sign of hope," said businessman William Murota. The deal would have a direct impact on the stock market, he believed, with foreign investors again trading on the local bourse, which has been shut for two months, since the central bank accused traders of using fraudulent cheques.

"We need to re-establish the credibility of the country," said Murota. "It will not be easy; it will require the combined efforts of both government and the private sector."

In terms of the deal, Mugabe will remain president, but, in a communiqué issued early on January 27, the SADC said it had been decided that on February 11 Tsvangirai will be sworn in as prime minister. His two deputies will also take the oath of office that day while other ministers and their deputies will be sworn in on February 13. Parliament will convene next week to start the legislative process required to back the deal.

The SADC leaders have pushed Mugabe into making a series of concessions, including reversing all executive appointments he has made since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding in September. He has also undertaken to review the appointment of the new attorney-general, Johannes Tomana, a staunch ZANU-PF supporter, and the renewal of the mandate of reserve bank governor Gideon Gono, who has presided over the highest inflation rate in the world.

The SADC has also forced Mugabe to share out the ten provincial governorships he had unilaterally allocated to his party. The regional bloc resolved that the party that had won the majority of seats in a province in last year’s parliamentary elections should govern that province.

In terms of the deal, Tsvangirai’s portion of the MDC will have five provincial governors, ZANU-PF four and Mutambara's breakaway MDC faction one. All senior appointments in government and its agencies will be reviewed once the MDC is in government.

SADC sided with Mugabe in insisting that the rival parties should share the vital cabinet portfolio of home affairs, which oversees the police, who have been accused of kidnapping and brutalising opposition supporters. Other ministerial portfolios remain heavily skewed in favour of Mugabe, who retains control of all the security ministries and the lion's share of powerful ministries, but SADC has recommended that the parties review all ministerial appointments after six months.

On January 30 ZANU-PF and opposition negotiators will resume talks, facilitated by SADC-appointed broker Thabo Mbeki, the former South Africa president, to choose governors and debate the National Security Council legislation, which defines the parameters of the security forces.

The meeting will also establish a Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee to oversee issues of compliance with the memorandum of understanding and the terms of the deal.

While hope is dawning in some quarters in Zimbabwe, not everybody is optimistic that the new government will succeed. Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe, believes "this resolution doesn't resolve anything".

Calling it "a victory for Mugabe and ZANU-PF”, he said “there isn't much for the people of Zimbabwe to enjoy”.

Some have expressed fears that Mugabe will use the arrangement to draw in and marginalise the MDC, as he has done with other opposition groups in the past. Critics say the power-sharing deal is reminiscent of the Unity Accord of 1987, when ZANU-PF merged with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU organisation, effectively swallowing it whole.

The MDC, too, is less than euphoric. "Quite clearly, the conclusions reached as reflected fall far short of our expectations," MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said in a statement issued shortly after the conclusion of the meeting.

But he added that "it is important that finality be brought to this issue” and that the MDC’s forthcoming national council meeting would “define the party position”. The party’s policy coordinator, Eddie Cross, predicted that the council would endorse the decision to join government.

Even with a government finally in place, experts believe Zimbabwe’s economic future will depend on the quality of the international support it receives. The country owes more than 5 billion US dollars to the African Development Bank and international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Another problem is that western governments have categorically stated that they will not back any new government that retains Mugabe as head of state and this week the European Union added 25 officials and 36 companies linked to President Mugabe's administration to a list of banned allies of the Zimbabwe regime because of their links to suspected human rights abuses.

Chipo Sithole is the pseudonym of an IWPR-trained reporter in Zimbabwe.

Georgia: Economic Slump Hurting

Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:55:03 -0600

Once buoyant economy is hit by downturn and war over South Ossetia.

By Tamar Khorbaladze in Tbilisi

Having enjoyed double-digit economic growth for several years, Georgia is now bracing itself for hard times as it comes to terms with the double blow of the August war and the world financial crisis.

Since October, increasing numbers of people have lost their jobs, property prices have plunged, banks have reduced lending, and the national currency, the lari, has depreciated sharply.

The country’s leadership had put on a cheerful front but acknowledged the gravity of the crisis in November.

“Winter and spring will be very hard for the economy of the country,” said President Mikheil Saakashvili on December 7, visiting a confectionery factory. “We ought to do everything to keep jobs.”

The 2009 draft budget was recalled from parliament only six weeks after it was first submitted on October 1 and a more modest version was introduced to deputies. The revised bill envisages four per cent economic growth in 2009 and has reduced government spending by a billion laris (around 600 million US dollars) compared to 2008.

The population as a whole first felt the impact of the crisis on November 7 when the lari fell sharply against the dollar from 1.45 to 1.65.

The Georgian banking sector, which had been developing rapidly, has suffered badly. Since the August war, the value of bank deposits, which were worth 4.1 billion laris, has shrunk by more than half a billion laris.

The National Bank says the Georgian government has struck deals with international lenders to receive low-interest credit lines, worth one billion dollars, for Georgian commercial banks. But ordinary people are being hit by a squeeze on credit.

In recent years, an increasing number of Georgians have taken bank loans to start a small business, finance repairs to their house, buy a new apartment, car, furniture or household appliance. Now they are finding it hard to get bank loans.

Two months ago, Giorgy Gegechkori, a computer programmer, decided to buy an apartment. At first, he could not find one, even though prices had fallen. A month ago, he found a two-room apartment for 40,000 dollars – a huge reduction in price given that before August the same flat would have cost him 65 – 70,000 dollars.

Now Gegechkori’s problem is that he cannot find a bank to loan him 30,000 dollars. “All the banks say that they will give loans only to clients whose salary is paid into their bank and who have a good credit history. Even though I have used a credit card and have never been late with my payments I was told that the apartment I had found was not sufficient for me to borrow 30,000 dollars,” he said.

With fewer buyers available, the property market has also suffered badly. According to former finance minister Lekso Aleksishili, accumulated debts in the property market amount to 1.5 billion laris. And yet around a quarter of construction has yet to start.

“This indicates that risks are very high in this field, and if a crisis strikes the sector, it will inevitably spill over to other areas,” Aleksishvili told IWPR.

Businessmen right across the economy are reporting problems. At the end of October, the Young Economists Association conducted a poll among 1000 businessmen. Only two per cent of them said the crisis had not affected their businesses, whereas 71 per cent complained about fewer sales.

The sectors that have suffered the greatest loss in sales are tourism, construction, services and retail.

Two weeks ago, the building materials firm Metekhis Keramika sent 210 employees, with salaries averaging 300 laris (around 180 dollars), on unpaid holiday because of a drop in demand.

The company has three million bricks stacked in its warehouse and still says it wants to see them sold by next April.

Georgian exporters also have been struggling to cope with the increasing strain on their finances. Ferro, a plant that produces ferroalloys in the town of Zestaphoni, has been working at half capacity, using only five of its 11 furnaces.

The company’s management says the plant has been losing orders after the world financial crisis hit and may have to cut back on its 6000-strong workforce

Georgian wine exporters, whose main market is now Ukraine following the Russian boycott, are also seeing lower sales, as are firms trading in household equipment.

Arktika, a network of stores selling computers and mobile telephones, used to make 700,000 laris a month, but after the August war its sales have plunged by 70 per cent, mainly because banks have tightened up on issuing consumer loans, which accounted for 87 per cent of Arktika’s sales.

Anna Katamadze, head of the Young Economists Association, said the slowdown in Georgia was the result of the August war as well as the global financial turmoil.

Experts and international organisations made gloomy forecasts for the Georgian economy as far back as early October.

A joint mission of the United Nations, the World Bank and European Commission carried out a Joint Needs Assessment for Georgia. To date, only an abridged and strongly edited version of the JNA has been made public. The non-governmental organisation Transparency International Georgia managed to get hold of the full version of the document and summarises it in a special report.

The report predicts that 100,000 Georgians will lose their jobs and says, “Between now and 2010, poverty levels are projected to rise from 23.6 per cent to 25.9 per cent, and those already poor may slide even deeper into poverty.”

The JNA was the basis for an international donor conference held in Brussels in October, at which donors pledged to give Georgia 4.5 billion dollars over the next three years to help it cope with the crisis. The finance minister Nika Gilauri said that it has so far received 600 million dollars of the promised aid.

Tamar Karosanidze, who is executive director of International Transparency Georgia, is worried that the global crisis will stop donors providing all of the promised aid to Georgia.

“According to the optimistic forecasts set out in the document, it will take two years to get business activities in Georgia back to normal,” said Karosanidze. “Until then the state has to act as the engine of economy, ensuring, above all, that the aid is used effectively.”

Tamar Khorbaladze is a correspondent with 24 Hours newspaper in Tbilisi.

Ethnic Uzbeks Opt Out of Turkmen Polls

Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:53:45 -0600

Many feel alienated by election process and do not plan to lend their votes to anyone.

By IWPR staff

Members of the sizeable ethnic Uzbek community in Turkmenistan say they will not take part in the December 14 election since they have been given no stake in it.

The Uzbeks are the country’s second largest ethnic group after the Turkmen, numbering perhaps 300,000 to 400,000 out of a total population of 5.2 million and concentrated in the Dashoguz and Lebap regions, along the eastern border with Uzbekistan.

Ahead of a parliamentary election which Turkmenistan’s president Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov has said will mark a watershed on the road to a more democratic system, the newspapers published a list of candidates who had been approved to stand. Although Berdymuhammedov had promised voters a genuine choice and an opportunity to nominate candidates, those selected to stand mainly represent either the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, the only party, or institutions affiliated to government like the women’s, youth, veterans’ and trade union movements.

Public selection meetings have been held, but IWPR investigations show that they are engineered by government. The audience is hand-picked and armed in advance with “spontaneous” questions to ask a candidate who has in any case been vetted and approved by the secret police. (See Turkmenistan’s Silent Election Candidates, News Briefing CentralAsia, 04-Dec-08.)

When people in Lebap and Dashoguz looked down the candidate lists for the people who would be representing them, it dawned on them that there was not a single Uzbek name among them.

Uzbeks might not have been expecting a real democratic choice, but were hoping for at least a few members of parliament who would be sympathetic to their community.

“This is not only an outrageous violation of our rights; it is an open insult to us,” said Abdul-Aka, an elderly Uzbek from a village in Dashoguz, angrily waving a newspaper containing the list.

“There are suitable people among the local Uzbeks who would have been able to represent our interests in parliament, and they are no worse than this lot.”

A young mother added, “We are very disappointed.”

A local election official confirmed this was the case, saying, “All the candidates are ethnic Turkmen.”

Disappointment among Uzbeks runs particularly deep as they had been expecting to see some change under Berdymuhamedov, who hinted at reforms after he came to power last year.

Under his predecessor, Saparmurad Niazov, who died in December 2006, the Uzbeks had a hard time and appeared to be discounted from the Turkmen nation-building exercise. From 2003 on, he seems to have viewed them as a fifth column, as he blamed the government of Uzbekistan of complicity in an attempt to assassinate him. As a result, Uzbeks were gradually removed from senior positions.

The new Turkmen leader has offered hope that things might change. For example, he and Uzbek president Islam Karimov have met and promised to improve relations.

Earlier this year, Berdymuhammedov pushed through significant changes to the constitution, almost doubling the number of seats in parliament to reach 125, which suggests there is more scope for nationwide representation.

According to one local journalist, “With the adoption of the new constitution, ethnic Uzbeks hoped that they would have some chance of nominating their representatives to the legislature. Under the dictator [Saparmurat] Niazov, parliament was homogeneous in its membership and consisted only of Turkmen.”

Even if it were possible to hold voter meetings freely, the Uzbeks do not seem keen to raise their heads above the parapet.

Analysts say ethnicity is one of the criteria the authorities have used to vet prospective candidates.

A lawyer, who asked not to be named, said any candidate who was nominated independently of the official selection process could expect trouble.

“The organisers of such [selection] meetings, along with their relatives, would be hauled in and intimidated by the security services, and that would knock any desire to show initiative out of them, even though that is their legal right,” he said.

The lawyer predicts that faced with few options, the Uzbek community will express its protest by quietly boycotting the vote.

“They intend to ignore the parliamentary election,” he said.

A straw poll in heavily Uzbek areas suggests that he may be right.

“I’m not going to vote for candidates who’ve been imposed on me,” said Qodirbergen, a 30-year-old man from a village close to the border with Uzbekistan.

“I am not going to the polling station at all on December 14, and many are intending to do likewise," said another man.

Analysts say a mass boycott could prove embarrassing, were the authorities planning to report accurate turnout figures. However, past practice in Turkmen elections suggests that results bear little relation to reality.

“The authorities will do everything possible, and even the impossible, to ensure that it is only Turkmen who get into parliament,” said a Dashoguz based-observer.

(Names of interviewees withheld out of concern for their security.)