By Don Weinland, originally published here on GlobalVoices
Amidst talk of an aging society and a depleting demographic dividend, appeals for a reconsideration of China’s One-Child Policy were voiced during the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference held Mar. 3 to 14.
Zhang Yin, China’s wealthiest woman and member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, called for a “gradual release” from the 30 year-old policy, with a three to five year trial period allowing some the right to have a second child before the nation as a whole.
In an interview with Southern Weekend Zhang said she was one among many who voiced concern over China’s low birth rate and the consequences of an aging society.
In an open letter issued by the Communist Party’s central committee in September of 1980, the One-Child Policy was suggested in order to relieve the demographic tensions of runaway birth rates. The letter states that after 30 years of state controlled family planning, “different demographic policies can be adopted.”
As the policy completes its 30 year course, the future of family planning has become a topic for debate. Despite a long tradition of large families in China, online opinion concerning a possible “Two-Child Policy” is mixed.
Blogger You Xin sees the One-Child Policy as inseparable from China’s long-term growth and conservation of resources.
计划生育是我国的基本国ç–,人å£æ•°é‡æŽ§åˆ¶åœ¨ä»ŠåŽå¾ˆé•¿ä¸€æ®µæ—¶é—´å†…还是è¦æœ‰åŠ›æ‰§è¡Œçš„。åªæœ‰å°†äººå£æ€»é‡æŽ§åˆ¶åœ¨ä¸€ä¸ªé€‚度范围,é¢ä¸´ 日益匮ä¹çš„资æºçŸç¼ºï¼Œæˆ‘国人å‡èµ„æºé‡æ‰ä¸ä¼šåŠå…¶åŒ®ä¹ï¼Œäººæ°‘生活水平æ‰ä¼šæœ‰è´¨çš„æ高。
Family planning is a fundamental policy in my country. Population control for a long period of time in the future must be carried out with force. In the face of daily increasing shortages of resources, only population control on a suitable scale will prevent extreme per capita resource shortages. Only then can the people’s quality of living be raised.
You Xin says China’s demographic dividend, the world’s largest group of labor-aged workers largely responsible for powering the country’s manufacturing engine, has not helped develop a white-collared job market suitable for university graduates.
为什么大å¦ç”Ÿå°±ä¸šéš¾ï¼Ÿå¹¶ä¸è¦æ‰¾ä¸åˆ°å·¥ä½œï¼Œè€Œæ˜¯æ‰¾ä¸åˆ°åˆé€‚的工作。大å¦ç”Ÿä½œä¸ºçŸ¥è¯†åˆ†å,当然ä¸æ„¿èžå…¥åˆ¶é€ 业当ä¸äº†ã€‚对于”人 å£çº¢åˆ©“时代的æ‹ç‚¹ï¼ŒåŠ³åŠ¨åŠ›ä¸‹é™ï¼Œæˆ‘们å¯ä»¥é‡‡å–其他措施,而ä¸æ˜¯æ”¾å¼€äºŒèƒŽæ”¿ç– … éšç€ä»¥åŽç»æµŽå‘展,我国也å¯ä»¿æ•ˆå‘è¾¾å›½å®¶ï¼Œå°†åˆ¶é€ ä¸šå¤§æ‰¹è½¬å…¥å…¶ä»–æ›´è´«ç©·çš„å›½å®¶ã€‚
Why can’t university students find a job? It’s certainly not because we can’t find work, but because we can’t find suitable work. Students, as intellectuals, of course aren’t willing to go into manufacturing … As the economy develops further, [China] can follow the example of developed countries and transfer manufacturing on a large scale to other poorer countries.
Blogger ‘Grassroots Public Servant’ disagrees, saying growth in the manufacturing work force is essential to China’s future and may influence the passing of a “Two-Child Policy” sooner than later.
如果ä¸å›½ç»æµŽèƒ½å¤Ÿè¾ƒå¿«å¤è‹ï¼Œåˆ™æ°‘å·¥è’ä¼šåŠ å‰§ï¼Œä¸”è¿œæ¯”å‰å‡ 年厉害,有å¯èƒ½ä¿ƒä½¿å…¨é¢æ”¾å¼€äºŒèƒŽæ”¿ç–çš„æå‰å‡ºå°ã€‚未æ¥ä¸å›½ç»æµŽå‘展 çš„ä¸€å¤§åˆ¶çº¦å› ç´ ï¼Œå¿…ç„¶æ˜¯åŠ³åŠ¨åŠ›ï¼Œç‰¹åˆ«æ˜¯ä½Žç«¯åŠ³åŠ¨åŠ›çš„ä¾›ç»™ä¸è¶³ã€‚
If China’s economy recovers relatively quickly, dramatically increasing the laborer shortage even more than the last few years, this may expedite the passing of the Two-Child Policy nationally. A major limitation to China’s future growth will certainly be labor power, especially shortages in the supply of low-level labor.
Blogger Wan Yu, who calls herself a basic level family planning officer, says the One-Child Policy was adopted to meet the economic challenges caused by the Cultural Revolution, which ended in 1976 and resulted in widespread unemployment. She says the policy was directed toward one generation of citizens and should be reviewed.
A deterioration of tradition family relationships is one of many problems Wan Yu cites with the continuation of the One-Child Policy.
…曾å¬è§éŸ³åƒåº—æ’放一ç§å„¿æŒï¼Œå†…容是“爸爸的哥哥是伯伯,妈妈的妹妹是姨妈……”,åˆå¬é¢‡è§‰åŒªå¤·æ‰€æ€ï¼Œç»†æƒ³ä¸èƒœæ„Ÿæ…¨ï¼Œå‡ 代 独生å女状æ€å¦‚果延缓下去,这些家åºä¼¦å¸¸å…³ç³»å°†æˆä¸ºåŽ†å²é—迹,å©å们åªæœ‰åœ¨å„¿æŒé‡Œæ‰èƒ½å¬æ˜Žç™½ï¼Œä»–们的社会关系会与现在出现æžå¤§å·®åˆ«ã€‚
I once heard a music store playing a children’s song that went like this: “My dad’s brother is my uncle. My mom’s sister is my aunt…” When I first heard it I thought it was unbelievable and couldn’t help but sigh. If generations of single children continue, the traditional family relationships of these families will become a historical artifact. Children will know [these names] from children’s songs only. Their social relationships will be extremely different from ours.
Blogger Shui Lian disagrees with the idea that a “Two-Child Policy” will permanently solve China’s demographic problems and argues that higher birth rates will continue the cycle of China’s once-endemic overpopulation problems.
…如果放开二胎政ç–的构想æˆä¸ºçŽ°å®žçš„è¯ï¼Œä¸ºäº†å…»è€å°±å¯ä»¥å¤šç”Ÿå女,那么,当这些å女è€åŽ»çš„时候,他们åˆè¦ä¾é è°æ¥å…»è€å‘¢ï¼Ÿ è¿™ä¸ä»…ä¼šäººä¸ºå¢žåŠ ç¤¾ä¼šå…»è€çš„æˆæœ¬ï¼Œè€Œä¸”åŠ¿å¿…åŠ å¤§æ¯ä¸€ä¸ªå®¶åºçš„å…»è€è´Ÿæ‹…,是一ç§ä¸æŠ˜ä¸æ‰£çš„逻辑悖论。
If two-child policy thinking becomes a reality, and we can have more children in order to take care of the elderly, then who will they rely on to take care of them when they grow old? This will not only artificially increase the costs of care for the elderly but will increase every household’s burden for caring for them. It is purely a contradiction in logic.
Results from China’s sixth national census point to the possibility of an easing in family planning policy. Southern Weekend reports that conditions that were once described as “population pressures” are now being called “advantages in human resources”. What was once called “population control” has now been dubbed “population development”, the article says.
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