With less than 48 hours to go before placing of the confidence motion in the lower house, the political activities in the capital are in feverish pitch. The position of UPA which appeared sounder on the day the Left withdrew support, is now somewhat diluted chiefly because of poor communicating skills of Sonia and Manmohan duo.
Manmohan, being basically a bureaucratic man (he even is not a member of the lower house), has little understanding of political manipulations and Sonia being too sober a lady to negotiate with diverse ambitions of various parties and splinter groups. In fact if UPA looses confidence vote, it will be due to a non-political Manmohan as Priminster.
However, there is a lot at stake for the industry houses too, and back door manipulations are going on with corporate houses doing their bit in overt or covert manners. There is a rumor that each MP is being offered as high as 25 crores (six million dollars in US currency) for voting for UPA in the confidence motion.
On record UPA has mastered 265 clear votes; the opposition too has around the same votes with about 12 MPs still undecided (or fence sitters!). The Magic figure is 271 keeping the Speaker out of count. So prima facie it is anybodies game at this point.
For opposition too, there is bad news with some Akali MPs likely to cross-vote for Singh and one or two Sena MPs are also said to be in favor of the motion. But I firmly believe that most of the single MPs (party with single MPs and there are 12 of them) including 3 independents, would support the motion of confidence as they can be lured by party in power.
It is irony of fate that Manmohan, at the cross-road of his political career, would not be able to put the confidence motion and debate on the same in the Lower House in spite of the fact that he is the man who knows every intricacies of the Nuclear-Deal best than others.
In any case it is going to be a razor edge division that would decide the ‘Fate’ of the government in power. Last time in 1998, a BJP led government was defeated by just one vote terminating a mere 13 days power regime.