*If ANC participates; NC likely in trouble
*Election most likely to throw up a fractured mandate
By Ajmer Alam Wani
The State of Jammu and Kashmir is yet to witness the best of times to hold elections. The exercise of franchise has never been undertaken there in entirely peaceful circumstances. Even the 1996 and 2002 elections, regarded as successes, had violent moments. If the Assembly elections were not to be held in November, there would be less reason to hope next year would produce conditions conducive to the staging of the general elections in the state. The opposition from the separatists and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the announcement was predictable. The former, united by the steely resolve of a resurrected Syed Ali Shah Geelani, is already contemplating ways to create an Islamic Nizamiat in Kashmir, with support from across the border. And facing political rout, the PDP cannot be enthused with the polls. Both were bound to create difficulties for the EC, as also the other parties which are looking to reap the benefits of their politics during the Amarnath crusade. But even in the fraught atmosphere, it would be better to give democracy a chance than to have the extremists bury it under the snow. But the situation seems different on ground.
Who wants elections? What is to come out of it? Is the mood of a common man in Kashmir Valley and a common Kashmiri on street appears as cynical as he is indifferent about elections.
Political analysts opined that this election may be a defining one for Kashmir as it is likely to throw up a fractured mandate in the Valley, as in a major political development (which was earlier unexpected) Awami National Conference (ANC) is all set to participate in the elections on which it would take decision of October 24.
ANC which opted out from all past elections since 1989 will take a final decision on its participation in the ensuing Assembly elections on October 24. According to sources the decision in this regard will be taken in a meeting which is scheduled to be headed by former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Mohammad Shah on October 24.
Analysts claim that a broken mandate in the Valley could strengthen the separatist movement.
Relevant to mention here that if ANC participates in the elections, the National Conference (NC) is likely to suffer in Kashmir in terms of votes.
The meeting, which would be attended by top leadership all central, provincial and district bodies’ leaders, would discuss in detail the ensuing polls in the state.
Sources added that meeting, which would be held at party headquarters in Srinagar, would take a final decision on the future strategy of the party.
The ANC, which believes that Kashmir is an issue which needs to be resolved as per the wishes of the people, has not contested any election in the state since 1989.
However, before the Shri Amarnath Shrine land row, the ANC had expressed its willingness to participate in the assembly polls and had in fact started campaigning in different parts of the valley.
When contacted NC President Omer Abdullah, mentioned, “See the record of past 20 years, ANC has no existence as it has not been involved in any sort of activity during this period”. Omer added that as other political parties NC will see ANC as a party and nothing more than that. Omer said that NC has not danger from the participation of ANC.
Interestingly Dr. Farooq Abdullah, Patron NC, when asked to answer a question on J&K elections he without listening to the question, said, “Aray Yar Keyaa Poochtey Hoo, Yeh Omar say Poochoo, (Ask Omar Abdullah).”
It will be worthwhile to mention here that Dr. Farooq Abdullah lost his power when his brother-in-law, Ghulam Mohammad Shah, established his credentials of enjoying majority support in the Legislature.
While in Jammu region; people are expected to vote en-masse for either Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) except in some Assembly segments where Independents candidates are in strong positions and are likely to take lead.
When asked, a Kashmiri matador driver said, “No one will vote in these elections. The separatists will definitely try to stop it by holding protests”.
An Auto driver, added, “Many people were killed during the Amarnath land row, people are not happy but they will show interest in voting if the government ensures free and fair polls”.
On the other hand political parties have dithered over announcing their participation in the polls; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has yet to confirm its participation while the National Conference (NC) which was earlier opposing agreed to participate only a day before the polls were announced.
The charges that elections will not be free are galore as there are also fears that the voter turnout could be low, however, the State and Central Election Commissions have refuted such charges.
Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader M.Y Tarigami, who is likely to contest polls from South Kashmir, said that the elections are too soon.
A PDP leader who didn’t want to be named as his party had not yet announced its decision said, “It is true that there is an element of reluctance. We hope good sense will prevail among the separatists and they will avoid confrontation. Although we will participate, we feel the dates are too early.”
Though the NC President Omar Abdullah is happy that uncertainty over the polls is over yet he is still doubtful about voter turnout.
Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) President and Union Minister for Water Resources, Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz while hoping that large number of voters would step out and cast their votes mentioned that Hartal or poll boycott is a negative attitude and everyone in the state should join the electoral process to strengthen the roots of democracy.
The Panthers party while regretting that the delimitation of Assembly constituencies was not done before the elections; termed it as discrimination with the Jammu region.
Panthers’ party leader Harsh Dev Singh mentioned that JKNPP’s poll issue is delimitation.
In Jammu region not only political leaders, but voters are also happy over the announcement of elections.
The mood of Congress and BJP is a study in contrast in Jammu region. While the BJP is upbeat and plans to cash in on its role during the Amarnath land row, the Congress workers are not very enthusiastic.
The Congress, which had won 15 seats in the 2002 Assembly elections in Jammu region, is struggling to maintain its position. Its cadres are not as excited because the Amarnath land row agitation has pushed them into a corner.
The leaders may say anything, but the people want to know what role they played in the Amarnath land row.
It was Congress government that allotted and then cancelled the land allotment to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) and now when Congress leaders will claim that they brought about a solution to the crisis, people will not trust.
On the other hand, BJP is upbeat. Its leaders and cadres feel that they were the ones who led the agitation for the land and the voters will reward them. But the frictions and divisions within the party on caste lines, combined with the leaders of other sister groups like the Shiv Sena (SS) nursing their own political ambitions, are leading to problems.
Traders in Jammu are yet undecided on the issue of support to political parties. Talking to Kattu Satya, Chamber of Commerce and Industries (CCI) Ram Sahai said that CCI has not yet decide who to support but from Sunday onwards meetings are being convened separately and the decision will be taken unanimously on which party to support.
A shop keeper said, “I am not going to vote this time” and added that the mood among the people is for stabilizing the economy and putting the house in order. The people are angry with the old faces of politicians. In anger unemployed youth mentioned, "All of them are liars, the basic issues of unemployment and fair representation to the people of Jammu are still hanging in balance”.
Moreover, NC leaders have started holding rallies in the region. But the people are being mobilized on caste lines, angering party workers. On Sunday when the Election Commission (EC) announced polls for Jammu and Kashmir, the three major political parties were holding rallies in different parts of Jammu region.
Congress, BJP were holding women’s conventions and the NC was addressing a public meeting in the border town of Vijaypur.