Ever diverting and often surprising, the Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton Punch and Judy show continues to draw excited crowds. But the longer the Democrats allow the push-and-shove to drag on despite the contest being effectively over, the greater the danger that the Republicans’ presidential choice, John McCain, will turn crocodile and eat them all up.
Pollsters say beating McCain in the November general election will be a much tougher test for Obama, assuming he is the nominee, than anything he has faced from Clinton during the primary season. The Arizona senator has been consistently underestimated by opponents, Washington’s political class and east coast newspapers that at times seem to be cheerleading for Obama.
When the media do notice McCain, the context is frequently negative. His age – 71 – and medical history – he underwent surgery for cancer in 2000 – are cited as potential problems for his campaign. He has not so subtly been accused of past marital infidelity. And his quick temper and occasional impetuousness have wiseacres shaking their heads knowingly.
But as the veteran US pollster John Zogby points out, McCain’s candidacy features a lot of positives, too, especially when it comes to winning the fast-reviving centre ground of US politics. His moderate conservatism is for many a reassuring reminder of how things used to be before neo-cons and the Christian right hijacked the Republican Party.
Attempts to portray McCain as “Bush III” will fail, Zogby told the Chatham House think-tank. “McCain is his own man. He is the one Republican who can get away from George Bush.”
After eight years of White House bumbling, McCain’s long experience in public office and grasp of foreign and security issues are said to answer a perceived need for restored competence at the federal level. His personal history as an airman and Vietnam prisoner-of-war is compelling, even for political adversaries.
Stephen Solarz, a former Democratic congressman from New York, tells the story of how McCain, held by his Vietnamese captors in the “Hanoi Hilton”, was offered his freedom because his father, Admiral John Sidney McCain, was commander of US forces in the Pacific. McCain declined any preferential treatment, saying fellow captives should be freed first. “That shows the sort of admirable, upright fellow he is,” Solarz said.
Zogby said McCain’s support for regularising the position of illegal immigrants, his opposition to Bush’s use of torture and his activism on environmental issues would all appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. McCain may also attract significant numbers of white, male, working-class voters who supported Clinton; and Latinos, another increasingly influential voter group.
Previous electoral rules and norms are being torn up this time around, rendering the contest highly unpredictable, Zogby said. “This is a transformational election. There is a national mood of serious crisis. Eighty percent of the electorate say the US is heading in the wrong direction. That’s staggering, worse than Watergate.
“What we’re seeing is the return of the centrists, the moderate, non-ideological, independent voter. This group is now larger than ever before – 35 per cent of the electorate. This force will shape how the country votes in November,” he said.
The “new centre” was very clear about what it wanted in a president, Zogby added, and it had little to do with ideology, party, race or age. In descending order of importance, people wanted a competent manager who would tackle the nation’s problems, someone who would bridge bipartisan divisions, someone with the stature to command the military, and someone who exhibited strong personal values.
More perhaps than McCain, Obama has the potential to fulfil all these requirements. He has his “own” voter groups – blacks, first-time voters, younger women, liberals – that he can count on. He personifies the “change” that many voters say is essential if America is to overcome the dread Bush legacy.
On the issues, for example, Obama’s vow to stage a 16-month phased troop withdrawal from Iraq is so appealing to many Americans that it could trump McCain’s national security credentials. And while McCain’s supposed “closet liberalism” might help him chip away at the centre, it may alienate the hard right Republican base nurtured by former Bush adviser Karl Rove.
Like McCain, Obama is also seen as having strong personal values. On the other hand, the Democrat’s resounding promises to heal America’s wounds are the very essence of his campaign appeal. McCain may be able to escape Bush’s shadow, but after decades spent working in a Washington political system that 85per cent of Americans currently revile, he can hardly pretend to be a fresh start.
It is this kind of back-and-forth analysis that explains why Zogby and other poll-watchers predict the autumn campaign will be highly competitive and the outcome very close. It also shows why, if the Democrats are serious about winning, the curtain needs to come down on Punch and Judy.
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