“In old Greece, Armies went to Temple of Athena, goddess of Wisdom, before going to battle where as Ares was the God of war. Their experience taught them that war was a very serious business to be dealt with wisdom and cool and all emotionalism and rashness lands forces to Blind Street and cause defeat”.
The great Philosopher of War, Carl Von Clausewitz Defined War as ‘Extension of Political policy by violent means’. He laid Foundations of study of modern War. The Industrial revolution revolutionalised the warfare and its techniques. War became more violent and technological advancements increased the pace and deadliness of war.
Revolution in Military Affairs or RMA started dictating the outcome of conflicts. After First World War, Civilized West was divided into two ideological blocks, Socialist and Capitalist Blocks starting an ideological war which after World War II came to its height. US and Western Capitalist block defeated Socialist Block in late 80’s due to flexibility of its Political and economic system and Technological advancements which made it superior to Soviet and Socialist Block.
After the fall of Eastern or Socialist block, World entered into era of unilateralism; where US was sole super power with global reach (During gulf War of 92, US bombers flew from their bases in mainland America, bombed Saddam’s forces in Iraq and came back to their bases after completing the circle around the world without touching the ground) and big lead in technology and economic capability.
Terrorist attacks on World Trade Centre and pentagon on 11 Sep 2001 changed the pattern of World politics. US attacked Afghanistan with support of whole world to bring perpetrators of these attacks to law Starting the War Against terrorism which some analysts call World War 4 ( Cold War is called 3 rd world war). Every country stood by the USA in this; but then as it is old saying “USE OF FORCE IS THE BIGGEST WEAKNESS OF STRONG”. US attacked Iraq on the pretext of WMD’s which to this day were never found. Iraq a better country during Saddam era became fragmented and poor country infested with sectarian and ethnic conflicts. During this war world powers like Russia, China and France opposed the invasion. First time after the fall of soviets the US was challenged by these countries.
Then with the passage of time the US frankly used its force and technology against different countries and groups not focusing on the grievances and grossly generalized and stereotyped the situation, which at one hand created anti American feelings while on the other weakened fear of America in hearts and minds of its opponents.
In start of second decade of this century the world witnessed Chain of revolutions against Monarchs and dictators in Arab world starting from Tunis. This chain of revolutions was named “Arab Spring”. I, at that time wrote that this Arab Spring was a staged spring of revolutions to depressurize already tense Middle East to depressurize the environment. This was later on proved when the Egyptian military overthrew democratically elected President and utilized brute force against protesters and then released Hosni Mubarak.
In 2011, the Arab Spring reached Syria, where a Dictator Bashaar Al Asad is ruling with his military might. He is remnant of cold war era Baath Party. There is evidence that his force used to crush anti government protesters and due to this use of force the Sunni majority was forced to take arm against his regime. This public struggle soon caught eyes of extremist forces and other anti Bashaar Al Asad regimes. According to the UN report, more than 100,000 people have been consumed by this civil war so far.
Looking at Strategic importance of Syria following things should be kept in mind:
1. Syria is an ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It’ provides line of communication and supply to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
2. A Russian Naval Base is located at the port city of Tartus near the Border of Lebanon on Mediterranean Sea.
3. Due to Syrian link to Hizbollah and Iran, it’s a serious threat to Israel’s security.
4. The same reason makes it enemy of an anti Iran Arab Monarchies.
A recent report of usage of Chemical weapons in Syria has disturbed the world conscious. Syria and its allies accuse anti government forces of using it whereas resistance and the world community, especially the US and its Arab Allies, accuse Syrian regime of using chemical weapons as Syria possess one of the world’s biggest stockpile of chemical weapons. In this essay my aim is not to discuss who used it but to see the chain of happenings and where they are heading to.
The US President Obama and his government, is under pressure from its Arab allies and other pressure groups like AIPAC to attack Syria in order to remove regime of Bashaar al Asad. The US President Barak Obama and his officials along with their Arab and European allies are trying to create consensus against Syria. The US Senates Foreign Affairs Committee voted in favor of Strike on Syria, while the US public demonstrates its disapproval in its protests against any involvement of the US in Syria.
President Obama has raised the stakes with his statements and of his officials. This has brought his government in awkward position. On the other hand, the British Parliament has voted against any British involvement against Syria. Russia, China and other major powers have already opposed strikes on Syria.
During G-20 summit the US president faced serious opposition from China and Russia. According to reports, the Russians have even threatened that attack on Syria will be considered as an attack on Russia while it has increased troop presence in the region. Few days back Israel and the US tested Russian level of seriousness when Israel fired a rocket to test Missile Shield, which was actually to test Russian response. According to the Russian RT news, the rocket was detected and the Russian Army went on high alert.
Obama Administration is facing a dilemma. If he orders to attack Syria it may turn the crisis into regional war and God forbid may turn into world war.
But If Obama restrains it will be taken as a sign of weakness and in future big powers will exploit this weakness in their favor and the US influence will decrease eventually.
On other hand, President Obama is facing public criticism over his stance. In either case if senate allows attack or prohibit in both cases Obama and democrat party will get a blow to their public approval.
1. Situation in Middle East is getting very tense. The Calm on the Face is hiding the underneath storms. In order to understand what will happen in post Bashaar ul Asad Scenario. We have to understand the sources of conflict in the Middle East .The main conflicts can be categories as
Ethnic Conflicts like ‘Arab no Arab Conflict’ like Iran and Arab States. Kurdish Question which creating Problem in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. Then Zionist and Palestinian conflict.
2. Sectarian conflicts like Sunni- Shia and Sunni and Alawite conflict being witnessed in Iraq, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
3. Monarchies/ Dictatorship V. Public aspirations: Like In Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt.
4. Palestinian -Israeli Conflict: This conflict is again linked to Monarch V. Public sentiments. Since 1948 Arabs have fought 4 major wars and 2 or 3 limited wars with Israel. Arab and Non Arab Muslims are agreed upon the rights of Palestinian rights but monarchs and dictators like to tow American line. That’s why when it comes to Hamas, no Arab state likes to support it and those who if at all support, have their own interests without love of Palestine.
Due to Authoritarian Regimes and International Support to these Regimes, a gap is coming between those who rule and those being ruled. This gap is being filled by religious extremist forces which sometimes are exploited as tactical partner by powerful.
If Syria will be attacked, there will be a surge in…
1. Ethnic conflicts i.e. Kurdish Problem will become more serious and the losers will be Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Syrian Dictator Bashaar al Asad gave semi autonomy to Syrian Kurds in response to Turkish support for the resistance.
2. Then there will be surge in sectarian violence. Shia Crescent may explode effecting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq Lebanon and Bahrain.
There is no doubt that minority rule on Syria needs to be changed. International Community and the Arab powers should pressurize Baath party of Syria and Bashaar ul Assad regime to go; but the use of force will create new complications in already tense Middle East.
Summing up the scenario, at present the International Community needs to device a sound strategy a strategy based not on emotions and blinded by strategic interests but equipped with delicacy to contain damage.