The Vicious Cycle of Thai Politic.
The hottest news today (December 4, 2007) in Thailand is a verdict passed down by the lower court. The court sentenced Matchima-Tipathai (the middle road democratic) Party leader to a 3 years jail term and a fine of 6,000,000.00 Baths (US$ 178,550,000). The order is to take effect immediately after the reading. This has sent a shock wave to the entire Thai political scene. Party leader Prachai Leopairat, a self made multi-millionaires of a petrochemical plant, cement manufacturer and oil distribution, was judged on an insider trading litigation of his own conglomerate TPI stock.
This has in effect put Prachai out of the race for Priministership and any Ministerial office by law. However, since the court allowed him out on bail to make petition to the appeal court in the case, he can still run in the election for a parliamentary seat. The whole process to appeal to the Appeal and later Supreme courts will take a time span of at least 4-5 years.
The incident has reduced the contenders for the Premiership down to two parties. One is the Britain trained food scientist and economist, the Democrat Party leader Apisit Wechachiwa. The other is an old political veteran Samak Soontorawej whom is known as the nominee candidate of the now defunct Thai-Rak-Thai party. Former Thai-Rak-Thai party builder and leader Taksin Chinawat, with a dozen or so court subpoena in corruption cases, has been hiding in England since he was toppled by a coup in September 2006.
Takin has since bought a British football team – Manchester City and worked there as a remote base to control his political activities in Thailand. He is still very influential in many aspects in Thai politics. Many respectful independent polls like ABAC and Suan-Dusit polls have repeatedly reviewed that his new nominated Party Parang-Prachachon (Power of the people) will wage a strong come back in the coming December 23, 2007 general election.
This amounts to a return of power to the former parliamentary dictator Taksin. Samak, as his political puppet, will have not much say but to do as the wish of his boss in the far away land. He knows full well that his second alternative is someone his subordinate will replace his premiership in his next Party reshuffle if he does not obey. What Taksin has in his agenda is of no secret, vengeance to all those has gone against him.
This will rekindle the division of the nation before he was ousted from the country. During his last few months of his reign, Thailand was virtually torn between those who supported and those against him. Scatted blood was seen here and there from the occasional encounters of the two sides.
King RaMa IX Bhumibol Adulyadej came out to call for the nation to unite in his short public discourse during the annual Royal Troop March earlier this month. He has just been discharged from his two weeks hospitalization to make the remarks out of his concern of the division in the nation. He is expected to make a reiterate call to unity in his usual annual birthday heart to heart talk to the entire nation this evening. His royal birthday falls on December 5th each year.
The army has been keeping a vigilant eye on the moving especially after the court decision today. If the election outcome is as predicted by the polls and revive back the old regime power, it will definitely usher in another political turmoil. A confrontation similar to the former crisis may follow and give the army an excuse to stage a repeating coup.
Since Thailand had it’s first Constitution and conducted the historical election about 150 years ago, there has been a non stop vicious cycle of election and coup d’etat every other few years. A new cycle will begin in a few weeks ahead with another general election, it is predictable that an end cycle will soon follow with a coup if Taksin is back.