China’s military and Communist party owned newspapers have put out a increasingly harsh and hawkish tone versus the Philippines. A telegraphing of its blows, some might say, like a prize fighter in boxing of ‘action’ versus the Philippines. Increasingly the tone has been seen in more and more China based publications.
[]… Manila’s arrogance is becoming the most evident challenge China faces in the South China Sea. China needs to come up with all kinds of economic and political counter measures, so as to make sure that Manila suffers …[] Global times op-ed
At the same time, its communist party controlled newspapers in its English editions talk of military ‘action’ or a small scaled war at sea. Perhaps to test the waters as it were to reaction.
"The Global Times, in an editorial published in its Chinese and English editions, said over the weekend that “China should be prepared to engage in a small-scale war at sea with the Philippines.”
The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported in its monitoring further that the paper seems to think – a conflict – is a forgone conclusion -“Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action to deliver a clear message to the outside world that it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it,”
But The Global Times – and hawks in China need to fear – be very afraid. As one wrong move by the PRC could mean its economic isolation and even risking a direct confrontation its own military admits they are not ready to face versus Manila’s allies and friends.
The Philippines, is more than just an ally of the United States – but America’s only example of a country it built in its image. The US flag flew here for than four decades. Never intended to stay but – from the start – thought of as what it has become a hub of operations for US government agencies overseas, as well as the private sector, and lately a major financial services hub for US companies based in Asia.
But – Chinese media hawks forgot this most of all; the most obvious one, 300,000 Americans living here. Three million Filipino Americans in the USA itself. There is almost no ship in the US Navy that does not have Filipino-Americans aboard.
While the Chinese newspapers mention a US return to Asia in the Philippines. That is largely untrue – while military bases have long since left and are likely not to return. The US civilian population never left in fact it grew along with it US companies doing business here – the Philippines is a major part of the US 24/7 services economy.
If, heaven forbid, there be any military action that affects the largest expatriate US citizen community in Asia.
Any attack might be viewed as an act of War versus the worlds sole superpower. The US-Philippine defense treaty states as much. Any US collateral loses – deaths – would have a impact China would regret.
During an election year? With a US President hanging onto a slim lead over opponents? I can almost hear the speeches – from both candidates. Echoing perhaps, Mac Arthur’s I shall return in more timely words of ‘payback.’ not a wise move.
There alone China should think a 100 times over – war with the Philippine would be a disaster. Unless it is a disaster that China’s ever shrinking group of communist hardliners want. As China’s economy grows and people see the benefits of market openness.
The hardliners see less and less of a place in China’s future if it becomes fully democratic. China’s CCP would likely lose out to more responsive political parties to a increasing demands for personal freedom.
Now, Imagine how US congressmen would if action took place – rush legislation freeze assets, top of the list – massive loan payments to China would likely be suspended. Less payments to China would mean more money for pork and legislative programs.
Others in region like Japan and Korea both ever eager to get back leads in the market of imports to the US economy would jump behind any move to block exports from China. Korea and Japan’s military forces have close ties to Manila as well.
Thus, the impact would be disastrous to China’s economy. In no uncertain terms – China might be able to grab some islands or reefs but in the end would be driven from them, As modern as China’s new ships and fleet is – it is no match even for Japan or Korea’s naval forces. Let alone the US 7th fleet.
US labor would love a China import ban
If China were to err on what American sentiment is at present
Look at anger over loss of jobs and manufacturing to China – worse yet – the impact of any attack affecting directly the US citizen population here. Would be a tragic miscalculation of its media hawks in the PRC. In particular those in China’s military and communist party newspapers.
They may be only letting of hot-air, but they do a dis-service to readers by forgetting to inform them fully the long term impact would be likely China’s loss in business.
CHINESE MEDIA CALLS FOR ‘Small War’ would necessitate strikes on command and control
While the Philippine military in terms of ships and planes and its ability to fight back is limited. Chinese media hawks need to be aware that it can fight back.
Its special forces units are highly capable. It does have a fleet of littoral vessels and most likely would be able to access more equipment and materials. The difference of the grab of mischief reef off Palawan in 1995. Is that the area is part of a conflicting claims zone. While Panatag shoals is clearly Philippine territory.
Manila does have the capability to sink ships and even more so strike at targets far from its shores. Not with smart bombs or missiles but with People Power – 11 million of them all over the world.
Manila’s biggest resource: the global Filipino
As a generally peaceful country – one thing the Philippines has that China would not would be sympathy. Secondly a vocal and organized international population over 11 million living across the globe. Notably even in China itself.
Perhaps not with bombs or missiles but there is not a country on the face of this planet that there are no Filipinos.
China can expect protests at every Chinese PRC embassy on the planet. Crying faces on TV’s worldwide if Manila or its major cities were hit .Far worse than the Falon Gong or Tibet
Remember who cooks Obama’s dinner?
As with most of the nannies and nurses and cooks as well as household staff of most of the middle east and even right across Europe. No new billionaires home in China itself is without Filipino staff – expect there to be a lot of talk. One picture a map of where China is and how close the reefs are to Manila?
Most hospitals are full of Filipino medical staff worldwide. Expect those to be vocal. In Ships at sea most have Philippine crews. What if they go on strike and decide not to load Chinese made goods?
Common sense and emotion will mean China would be condemned as a greedy, a bully, and, oppressor.
No matter what China were to say across the globe the Philippine if attacked would be considered a victim. But, China at times has been known not to care about global public opinion.
EUROPEAN ECONOMIES COULD REBOUND WITH SANCTIONS VS. PRC
However, in Europe or elsewhere – where – much like I mentioned above in the event of a major attack or action.
European countries whose economies are doing badly also might use it as an excuse to block imports. Similarly labor and trade unions would love to call for increased domestic production anew and blocking of more – trade. France also in a election year would see it as boom to their own domestic economy.
Small Scale War threat: the basics
China would likely have to strike Philippine command and control. The major military camps and government centers are all located inside the capitol with over nine and a half million people living around the areas.
China does not have the capability yet to use laser and gps weapons on the scale of the United States and Europe. Most systems are not yet up to par with NATO or regional US allies.
Examples of Chinese weapons have shown a 40-60 per cent effective hit-miss ratio. Good but in areas where camps are nearby to large population centers? A risk of collateral damage would mean that likely tactical teams would have to be deployed.
The risk of thier capture would be high. While they might have success the strikes would likely be limited to – shock and awe – however – they would not likely be a long term success as other military facilities could do the jobs required.
PROXY WAR? Unlikely to have any long-term success
Proxy attacks by funding sympathetic groups might be an option. But then that would go counter to UN terror funding laws.
While China has for example provided arms to Syria, Saddam’s Iraq, Libya’s Ghadaffi and Iran. And technology to North Korea as shown by a recent military parade – it has not been known to directly support ‘non-government actors’ in recent years.
Thus the likelihood of success would be limited to funding ‘noisy groups’ or others who might be hired to sow discord or create social unrest. Some in the Philippine military and intelligence community have hinted that this may already be happening – noting- a increase in the number of protests by groups holding ideological ties to China.
But, since the start of reef and islands stand-off the negative impact has driven even fervent Maoists who originally were supported by the CCP to be highly critical of China. Even its oldest allies and proxies it seems would not support any direct action by China’s militarily and the impact would be disastrous to Chinese investments in the Philippines.
Any action would also risk reprisals versus local resident Chinese and ethnic chinese-filipino groups. Who the majority of ironically moved by and large to the Philippine to escape communism’s negatives in China’s civil war. Most now regularly return to China and invest across both nations. Impact there would be likely immediate and direct.
TELECOMS: Any cut-off of communication means USA BPO shutdown
One area likely to be hit also would be Philippine telecoms lines and facilities to ‘block out’ or cut off the country’s communications. That would effectively shut down scores of US companies based here that service directly the US economy.
But, if China were to ‘do a nasty’ in the south china sea. Aside from the obvious conflict issues freedom of navigation, oil shipments through the region, fisheries regional food security, oil production platform investments by us firms in area. All that likely are the top of any U.S. interest list.
MAJOR US BANKS, AT & T, Customer care affected
China Hawks also miss this point. Such an act would be devastating for many banks, AT&T, and voice services companies who use about 900,000 call center workers and contact services as well as billings firms directly. Since late 2010 – the vast majority of US voice line services of outsourced firms have shifted here from India. So any small scale
Action by China affecting telecoms would impact directly the US economy – secondarily India and the rest of SE Asia as well..
Thus if in the course of the conflict these were damaged not just Manila would be problematic but most of ASEAN as well. Most use the services offered in trade with the US and North America.
Thus in a way China would be directly impacting the US economy the very thing that has been the lifeblood of its own success. In summary – China’s media hawks need to be very careful. Any push to action will lead to a reaction.
While China is a economic superpower – its military is not yet even close to that. – In the end it might be fighting a mouse – but – even elephants run from mice that can roar.
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