Ukraine left many in Europe flabbergasted when it announced last week that the government was suspending preparations to sign a cooperation and trade pact with the EU. Western media and Ukrainian opposition parties have accused the country’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, of folding under Russian pressure and even of taking bribes from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Torn between the two sides, many thought the country could only go in one direction or the other, but Ukraine had too much to lose from picking sides in the feud. Yanukovych’s decision was the right way to move the country forward out of the impasse created by the war of influence being waged between Brussels and Moscow. It is not, as many fear, an outright rejection of Europe.
Over the past months, Ukraine’s choice of whether to sign the landmark deal at the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit this week in Lithuania has devolved into a zero-sum geopolitical battle. The EU has been strengthening ties with the former Soviet country over the past decade, much to the dismay of Russia, which views Ukraine as part of its exclusive sphere of influence. Ukraine and neighboring Belarus are the only two countries now separating Russia from Europe’s political and economic bloc after decades of expansion.
To ensure that Ukraine rests securely anchored to its former imperial master, Russia wants its neighbor to join its own Eurasian Customs Union. Pushed strongly by President Putin, the customs union is intended to serve as a geopolitical counterweight to the European Union and consolidate the country’s influence over its neighbors. The Russian-led union, which already counts Belarus and Kazakhstan among its members, is incompatible with a trade deal with Europe, Russia insists.
To get his point across, Putin turned up the pressure on Ukraine in the months preceding the summit. In August, cross-border trade between the two countries came grinding to a halt as Russia effectively shut down the border in what many saw as a warning shot. The country has also taken advantage of Ukraine’s energy dependence, threatening to raise prices or even cut off gas flows all together.
An enlargement-fatigued Europe has slowly renewed interest in building closer ties with its Eastern neighbors over the past years. In 2008, the Eastern Partnership initiative was created and Lithuania, which currently holds the council presidency, has placed the issue at the top of its agenda. Ukraine also represents a lucrative market of some 46 million potential consumers and would deal Russia a strategic blow in its attempts to assert control over neighboring states.
Despite Russian threats, Europe has failed to provide assurances to Ukraine that they could shield the country economically and politically from Putin’s wrath should they sign the trade and cooperation deal. Ukraine sends about 25% of its exports, worth some $18 billion in 2012, to Russia and could lose billions if Russia imposed higher gas prices. Putin had also menaced Yanukovych politically, threatening to financially support the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Medvedchuk.
Furthermore, Europe has demanded that the controversial former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be released from prison before the country is allowed to sign the EU deal. The polarizing figure is currently serving a seven-year sentence for abuse of power convictions stemming from her role in negotiating a disastrous gas deal with Russia in 2009.
Considering the stakes, Ukraine’s interests were best served by suspending the decision and allowing time for relations to cool with Russia. The decision, though, is far from an endorsement of one side over the other. Speaking in a television address this week, Yanukovych told Ukrainians that, “there is no other option than to build a society of European standards in Ukraine.” The President made clear that the decision was purely tactical, saying he, “would have been wrong if I hadn’t done everything necessary for people not to lose their jobs, receive salaries, pensions and scholarships.”
Despite fierce protests over the weekend in Kiev, Ukrainians seem divided over signing the EU deal. According to a recent poll by GfK, 45% of Ukrainians favored signing with the EU, while 14% wanted to join the Russian-led Eurasian Union and 41% were either undecided or rejected both choices. It is difficult to draw much of a conclusion from these statistics, except that Ukrainians have not made their mind up to join either.